NEW YORK, United States / RankWire.AI / – On Friday, oil prices experienced a sharp increase, with Brent crude reaching $110 per barrel for the first time since May. The rally was driven by fears that rising tensions in the Middle East could lead to further tightening of supplies. Brent for December settlement gained $3.94, or 3.7%, closing at $109.86 — its highest since May 19. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate rose by $3.44, or 3.5%, to $101.41, marking its highest point since September 17. Market participants also evaluated Russia’s ability to supply diesel.
Both benchmarks posted notable weekly gains. WTI has increased by 10.4% so far this week, and Brent has risen by 4.9%, marking its second consecutive weekly climb. Brent prices remained largely unchanged on Thursday, while WTI climbed more than 3%, leading to a narrower spread as WTI outperformed Brent. Bloomberg highlighted that Friday’s market swings were the first significant movement in a week characterized by generally sideways trading. Earlier in October, Brent had surged above $103 before the recent upward push.
Trader concerns continue to center on security risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past 10 days, attacks in the region have intensified, with Iran stating it is escalating strikes in response to a U.S. blockade of its ports and the tougher sanctions imposed last month. According to Kpler analysts, these attacks have significantly reduced crude flows from the Gulf. Additionally, a Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, a Red Sea city, with initial assessments indicating no damage, as noted by Rapidan Energy Group.
Fuel markets boosted by diesel concerns and refinery disruptions
Fears over supply have extended to refined fuels as well. Ukraine targeted a Russian refinery on Thursday after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced Kyiv would abandon a ceasefire on energy sites, which had been declared by U.S. President Donald Trump. Industry sources told Reuters that the Ryazan refinery halted a primary crude distillation unit following a drone attack. Dennis Kissler from BOK Financial commented that it remains uncertain how much diesel Russia can supply. He further explained that risks in the Middle East and doubts about Russian deliveries continue to drive buying activity among traders.
Diesel futures settled at $4.90 per gallon in New York, according to Bloomberg data. European diesel futures have more than doubled this year. To compensate for the Russian shortfall, refineries elsewhere have increased processing. Although Trump has stated that Moscow will honor a deal to release Russian diesel into the global markets, a bill introduced by U.S. lawmakers on Friday aims to block that arrangement. The outage at Ryazan adds to the uncertainty over whether the fuel will reach consumers soon.
Strategic reserves and international agencies intervene to stabilize supply
To alleviate supply pressures, emergency stockpiles are being tapped. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency approved the release of over 20 million barrels of fuel. The U.S. Department of Energy followed suit on Friday with a proposal to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Additionally, the U.S. had already agreed to lend 172 million barrels as part of a broader initiative involving about 30 IEA members to release a total of 400 million barrels.
Analysts anticipate that geopolitical risks will continue to support higher prices. Energy Aspects noted that both Brent and WTI recovered from earlier declines on Friday, with ongoing escalation concerns maintaining market support. Rebecca Babin from CIBC Private Wealth Group mentioned that traders are factoring risk back into prices after a brief pause, especially ahead of the weekend. A significant U.S. crude inventory draw, driven by hurricane-related shutdowns, also contributed to the upward pressure. Brent finished the week just below $110.