ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank provided this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. The bank used the international poverty line of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms to measure poverty. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise made Pakistan the leading contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Together, Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen constitute another 47% of the population living below the $3 poverty line across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations make up roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, the region hosts about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty, with Sub-Saharan Africa holding a larger share. Moreover, MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
The poverty situation in Pakistan also worsened at the higher $4.20 daily threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, the rate reached approximately 48%, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional report cited the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic reforms as key factors behind the country’s declining poverty indicators.
Poverty levels increase following multiple economic shocks
A new household survey conducted earlier in 2026 significantly revised the regional poverty estimates. The updated data raised MENAAP’s projected 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s estimated number of people living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite positive GDP growth, Pakistan’s poverty figures stay high. The latest forecast estimates GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The report predicts inflation at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. Consequently, inflation in 2027 is projected to be higher than in 2026, despite ongoing economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% share also stems from a statistical adjustment that altered the regional comparison framework. In September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP grouping. According to Pakistan’s government, this administrative change did not modify the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, the government’s finance minister adviser, explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was now included in MENAAP calculations. This reclassification impacts how the regional poverty shares are presented.
The October update also highlighted deteriorating economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026. The region’s output is projected to decline by 2.1%, following a 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced challenges due to conflict and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Still, developing oil importers such as Pakistan showed relative resilience, with a projected growth rate of 4.3% for 2026. Nevertheless, rising food and energy costs continued to weaken household purchasing power across multiple countries.